Application of home solar system in Lyon France

Will the French residential solar PV market stay on a stable path?

Despite the ongoing policy uncertainty, we remain optimistic that the French residential solar PV market will stay on a stable path through to 2030. In our outlook, we project a modest ~5% CAGR for residential solar, driven in part by rising retail electricity prices and the increasing appeal of energy independence.

Does France have a solar PV market?

Historically, the residential solar PV market in France lagged behind neighbouring countries, due to low electricity prices and limited incentives. We estimate that no more than 6% of the addressable market has been tapped – Germany in comparison has reached 24% of market penetration. But momentum is building.

Should France sell excess solar?

If selling excess solar is less rewarding, the case for keeping and storing it becomes stronger. This could catalyse a broader shift but only if the right policies and price signals follow. The biggest risk to France’s solar sector isn’t any single policy change, it’s inconsistency. Two steps forward, one step back.

How much solar power will France have by 2035?

The numbers tell the story: while President Macron had previously called for 75 GW - 100 GW of installed solar capacity by 2035, the new 2035 target in the PPE 3 sits between 65 and 90 GW. For a country aiming to lead on climate, it’s a mixed message at the worst possible time. The solar market in France is already feeling the impact.